Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Wale Edun, has said Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow by 4.68 per cent in 2026 as the Federal Government pushes an investment-led growth strategy focused on job creation and improved welfare for citizens. He spoke on Thursday in Lagos while delivering the keynote address at the launch of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group Macroeconomic Outlook Report for 2026.
Edun said the 2026 growth outlook aligns with the administration’s medium-term ambition of achieving seven per cent annual economic growth and building a one-trillion-dollar economy by the end of the decade. According to him, “the economy in 2026 is projected to grow at 4.68 per cent, consistent with our path to seven per cent growth per annum and a one-trillion dollar economy by 2030.”
He also provided projections on key macroeconomic indicators for the year. Edun said inflation is expected to average 16.5 per cent, while the exchange rate is projected at about N1,400 to the dollar. “For inflation, as we have said, we need to get into simple figures. It is expected to average 16.5 per cent and the exchange rate, N1,400 per dollar,” he said.
The minister explained that the 2026 budget, titled Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity, reflects President Bola Tinubu’s focus on ensuring that macroeconomic improvements lead to tangible benefits in people’s daily lives. “It is not about the metrics or the percentages; it is about the lived experience of Nigerians in terms of electricity supply, food availability and improved welfare,” Edun said.
He noted that the projected budget deficit of about four per cent of Gross Domestic Product shows the scale of Nigeria’s development needs and the government’s determination to accelerate economic growth. Edun said that following the removal of economic distortions and recent stabilisation measures, policy focus has shifted towards driving growth through higher levels of investment.
According to him, ongoing investments in digital infrastructure are central to this strategy. He cited the rollout of over 90,000 kilometres of fibre optic cables in collaboration with the World Bank and the Ministry of Communications as a move aimed at empowering young Nigerians and supporting technology-driven growth.
Edun said the government’s reform programme is built around four key objectives. These include consolidating macroeconomic stability, improving the business and investment climate, strengthening human capital while protecting vulnerable groups through social protection, and stimulating broad-based economic growth across sectors.
On fiscal performance, the minister said that despite shortfalls in oil and gas revenues compared to budget estimates, the Federal Government prioritised fiscal federalism, transparency and accountability in managing the federation account. “This ensured that funds due to states and sub-national governments were fully disbursed, significantly strengthening their financial positions,” he said.
He added that many states recorded budget surpluses of about three per cent, which allowed them to increase spending on health, education, public services and other social and economic priorities. Edun also highlighted the Federal Government’s decision to extend the 2024 budget to ensure the completion of priority capital projects.
“Aggregate capital expenditure in 2024 stood at about N11.1 trillion, representing an 85 per cent performance, reflecting the administration’s emphasis on completing ongoing projects,” he said. He further noted that all statutory obligations, including foreign and domestic debt servicing as well as salary payments, were fully met during the period.
“These outcomes underscore a strong commitment to transparency, structural reform and fiscal discipline, as well as laying the foundation for rapid, sustained and inclusive growth,” Edun added. He said the long-term growth target of seven per cent is designed to outpace population growth and lift millions of Nigerians out of poverty.
The minister explained that reducing reliance on debt remains a key fiscal priority. He said the government is placing renewed emphasis on boosting revenue through digitalisation, central billing systems and improved reconciliation processes to block leakages. “The introduction of a central billing and receipt system would enhance transparency by tracking assessments and payments in real time across government agencies,” he said.
Edun also highlighted the implementation of a new tax law, which he described as pro-poor. He said the law is designed to broaden the tax base, simplify compliance and exempt essential goods, food items and small businesses.
He said President Tinubu’s broader vision is to build a resilient, diversified and globally competitive economy, leveraging exchange rate stability and expanded trade opportunities under ECOWAS and the African Continental Free Trade Area. Key priorities for 2026, according to Edun, include improving competitiveness through sound governance, boosting agricultural productivity and food security, accelerating infrastructure and energy development, and investing in human capital.
Edun acknowledged constraints in global concessional financing and said Nigeria must increasingly depend on domestic resource mobilisation and private sector investment to fund development. He urged Nigerians at home and in the diaspora to take advantage of improved macroeconomic conditions to invest. “The private sector is indispensable to sustaining growth,” he said.
He added that although the task ahead remains challenging, the Federal Government is committed to translating economic stability into inclusive and job-rich growth. “We remain committed to delivering tangible benefits to the average Nigerian,” Edun stressed.
