Nigeria’s evolving food planning framework is drawing attention to structural pressures across the food economy, with new figures showing that combined food imports and exports nearly reached N5 trillion while many farmers reported losses on major staples. Fresh data presented at the National Agribusiness Policy Mechanism workshop in Abuja on Tuesday outlined how the country’s food system has been shaped by high import bills, production shortfalls and rising costs that affected farmer margins across the 2025 major wet season.
The workshop, convened by the Presidential Food Systems Coordinating Unit under the Office of the Vice President, reviewed outcomes from 13 pilot states and assessed prospects for the 2025 to 2026 dry season. Presentations showed that about N4.5 trillion worth of food commodities were imported during the last major crisis period, while exports ranged between N4.8 trillion and N5 trillion, based on figures from the Nigeria Customs Service.
Marion Moon, technical assistant, agriculture, Office of the Vice President and secretary of PFSCU, said the NAPM was created to move agricultural policy away from scattered decision making. She said it aims to support coordinated and data driven planning across federal, state and local governments to help stabilise food production and trade. Updated PFSCU data showed that Nigeria’s food import bill rose to nearly N6 trillion in 2024, a trend stakeholders described as exposing the economy to global price shifts and supply disruptions. Farmers, at the same time, struggled to break even as costs climbed following naira depreciation and higher fuel prices.
Impact assessments shared at the workshop showed maize and rice farmers were the hardest hit during the 2025 major wet season. Maize farmers recorded average production costs of about N726,000 per hectare and earned about N685,440, leading to a loss of roughly N40,560 per hectare. Rice farmers faced average costs of about N750,200 per hectare, while their revenue averaged around N729,980, resulting in losses of about N20,220 per hectare. Analysts at the event noted that rising input prices and reduced acreage contributed to the negative margins.
Production data showed maize output in the pilot states fell by about 2.8 percent due to smaller cultivated areas and lower yields. Rice production dropped by nearly 8 percent as farmers reduced planting because of weak profitability. Not all crops performed poorly, however. Soybean production rose by about 38 percent, driven by higher yields and increased land use. Average profits for soybean farmers were estimated at more than N400,000 per hectare. Sorghum output slipped by about 1 percent but remained marginally profitable because of lower input costs and its stronger tolerance to climate pressure.
Food balance simulations under the NAPM showed supply gaps across maize, soybean and sorghum. Maize availability was estimated at about 11.43 million tonnes against a domestic demand of roughly 12.2 million tonnes. Soybean availability stood at about 0.69 million tonnes compared with demand of about 1.1 million tonnes, while sorghum also recorded a deficit. Rice was the only major staple with a simulated surplus, supported by imports estimated at 3.2 million tonnes and reserves of about 1.88 million tonnes.
Dera Nnadi, deputy comptroller general of the Nigeria Customs Service in charge of strategic research and policy, explained that government approved imports of unprocessed commodities such as paddy rice and wheat during the 2024 food crisis. He said the measure was designed to stabilise domestic prices through local processing. According to him, Nigeria imported about N4.5 trillion worth of unprocessed food commodities during that period and exported almost N5 trillion worth of agricultural products. Nnadi said this showed strong production capacity but also revealed persistent weaknesses in post harvest management, storage and processing that reduce farmer earnings.
He said farmers lose value when they sell produce in raw form and urged state and local governments to support federal investments by providing silos and processing facilities. Nnadi added that the NCS shares food trade data with the PFSCU and the NAPM, monitors global food price movements and enforces food import rules while working with quarantine agencies to block harmful agricultural imports. He pointed out that official records do not fully capture informal cross border movement of food and stressed that customs acts as an implementing agency and not a policy making body.
PFSCU data also revealed gaps in farming inputs. Average fertiliser application stood at about 30 kilograms per hectare, below the Abuja declaration goal of 50 kilograms. Only about 45 percent of farmers used improved seed varieties during the wet season, limiting potential yields. For the 2025 to 2026 dry season, states plan to support about 214,000 farmers with input subsidies, extension services and limited irrigation assistance. Yet fewer than 30 percent of farmers currently have access to motorised irrigation tools, which raised concerns about the scale of dry season production.
Officials said the NAPM pilot, launched in May 2025 for four production seasons, will help determine how improved coordination across production, trade and reserves can shape nationwide agricultural planning in the years ahead.
