Nigeria’s long-running insecurity and terrorism challenges are closely linked to deep and uneven poverty across the country, with ethnic inequality, corruption and weak governance creating conditions that leave millions vulnerable to violence and displacement, according to new analysis.
Nigeria has endured decades of violent insurgencies and currently ranks 6th on the 2025 Global Terrorism Index, with numerous people killed and millions displaced across different regions. Data on casualties from terrorist attacks in 2025, captured by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data and the Council on Foreign Relations’ Nigeria Security Tracker, show that most of the victims are from areas with high poverty levels, a trend also reflected in the Nigerian Poverty Map.
Tolu Olarewaju, a researcher who has studied ethnic poverty, explains that the overlap between violence and poverty in Nigeria is not accidental but rooted in long-standing structural problems. He notes that poverty in Nigeria takes many forms, including lack of income and productive resources, hunger and malnutrition, illness, early death, and limited access to education and basic services. It also includes poor housing, unsafe environments, and exclusion from decision-making and social life.
Nigeria’s population is currently estimated at about 237 million people, with more than 133 million Nigerians living in poverty. Poverty levels are significantly higher in rural areas, where about 72 per cent of people are poor, compared to 42 per cent in urban areas. According to Olarewaju, this widespread poverty is driven mainly by historical and governance-related factors.
He points to history, particularly the legacy of the slave trade and British colonial rule, which prioritised the economic interests of the British Empire over the development of local populations. He also highlights corruption and poor governance practices as key drivers of Nigeria’s current poverty crisis. “My work shows that when initiatives are introduced to reduce poverty in Nigeria, they are often hijacked by corrupt individuals,” Olarewaju said.
Successive governments have launched several programmes aimed at reducing poverty, but results have remained limited. In October 2023, the current administration introduced the “Renewed Hope Conditional Cash Transfer” programme to cushion the effects of fuel subsidy removal, which had raised the cost of living and contributed to inflation. Despite its intentions, the programme has not significantly reduced poverty levels across the country.
Analysts say the repeated failure of poverty reduction efforts in Nigeria stems from multiple issues, including corruption, poor targeting of beneficiaries, limited funding, weak legislative oversight, political interference, and the lack of a flexible, people-centred approach. These challenges have prevented programmes from reaching the most vulnerable populations.
Poverty is also described as a common thread linking areas affected by terrorism in Nigeria. Poor communities are more exposed to recruitment by terrorist groups, while attacks often target people who are already economically disadvantaged. This cycle, experts say, deepens insecurity and reinforces poverty.
Olarewaju’s research focuses on ethnic poverty, a situation where entire ethnic groups experience long-term, systemic deprivation. He explains that ethnic poverty arises when shared history, culture, religion or language intersects with persistent economic exclusion. His findings show that ethnic poverty can fuel conflicts that are often labelled as ethnic, religious or tribal.
He notes that ethnic poverty disparities, uneven development and the spread of radical ideologies make countries more vulnerable to violent insurgencies. Similar patterns have been observed in countries such as Rwanda, Sri Lanka, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Ethiopia. While ethnic poverty can increase hatred and violence, Olarewaju argues that economic growth could offer a “win-win solution” if wealth is shared more equitably.
Nigeria is a multinational state with more than 250 ethnic groups and over 500 distinct languages. The three largest ethnic groups are the Hausa in the north, the Yoruba in the west, and the Igbo in the east. Olarewaju notes that Nigeria is particularly prone to violent insurgencies when armed groups affected by ethnic poverty attempt to challenge or overthrow the government.
Ethnicity and poverty are closely linked in Nigeria, with inequalities in wealth and education persisting across regions. About 65 per cent of the poor and less educated population live in the north, where the Hausa and Fulani ethnic groups are predominant. Poverty levels also vary widely by state, with multidimensional poverty rates ranging from about 27 per cent in Ondo State in the south to as high as 91 per cent in Sokoto State in the north.
Addressing ethnic poverty, Olarewaju says, requires multiple solutions that will take time to mature. He suggests that the government should hold transparent discussions and elections to determine whether a regional system of government focused on local problems would work better than the current centrally planned structure.
He also calls for a clear strategy to combat corruption while focusing resources on ethnic groups with higher poverty rates. Expanding education and vocational training, linked to local labour markets, is seen as key to promoting peace, tolerance and employable skills. Entrepreneurship training and financial literacy programmes could also support self-reliance and community-based economic growth.
Other proposed measures include incentives for responsible industrial development in high-poverty areas, policies that promote balanced urban and rural growth, and increased investment in transport, digital and communication infrastructure to improve access to education, security and markets. Olarewaju also stresses the importance of promoting inclusive national narratives that recognise and celebrate Nigeria’s ethnic diversity.
Together, these steps, he argues, could help build a more equitable social contract, rebuild trust in government, and gradually reduce the cycle of inter-generational ethnic poverty across Nigeria.
